# Lottery wins and games played per user

How many tabletop RPG spots the lottery gave each user, per event and year: each chart row shows how many users won exactly that many spots. The `0 spots` row is lottery participants who won nothing; years with a direct sign-up phase also note how many of them still got into an RPG via direct sign-up.

Wins are counted from the lottery assignment results to measure algorithm performance: a spot counts even if the user later gave it up, and each lottery slot counts once per user. Wins on deleted program items cannot be counted (see Notes). Participants are users with at least one RPG lottery sign-up, plus all winners (a group member's own sign-ups may be missing from the data, see caveat).

Years with a direct sign-up phase have a second chart with the total number of games the same users ended up playing: spots still held in the final data, whether won in the lottery or grabbed via direct sign-up - cancelled lottery spots don't count.

**Caveat:** some losing participants are missing from the data, so the real `0 spots` counts are somewhat higher than shown (least so for Ropecon 2026, which records group compositions live):

- Joining a group deleted the user's own sign-ups for upcoming program items in dumps before Ropecon 2026 (2017-2018 sign-ups were restored from old result snapshots).
- The backfilled group records of older events reflect each group's final membership: anyone who left a group before the event ended is missed, and late joiners are counted for slots they never entered.
- Program items moved or deleted after a lottery run erase the matching sign-ups, which can hide a losing group even in 2026 data.

## Ropecon

### 2017

**Lottery wins (447 participants, 404 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ██████ 43 (9.6%)
1 spot  │ ███████████████████████████████████ 247 (55.3%)
2 spots │ ██████████████ 95 (21.3%)
3 spots │ ██████ 41 (9.2%)
4 spots │ ██ 13 (2.9%)
5 spots │ █ 6 (1.3%)
6 spots │ 2 (0.4%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 7 users)
```

This event had no direct sign-up - the lottery was the only way in.

### 2018

**Lottery wins (658 participants, 536 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ███████████████ 122 (18.5%)
1 spot  │ ███████████████████████████████████████ 308 (46.8%)
2 spots │ ███████████████ 118 (17.9%)
3 spots │ ████████ 66 (10.0%)
4 spots │ ███ 26 (4.0%)
5 spots │ ██ 15 (2.3%)
6 spots │ 2 (0.3%)
7 spots │ 1 (0.2%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 8 users)
```

This event had no direct sign-up - the lottery was the only way in.

### 2019

**Lottery wins (718 participants, 570 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ███████████████████ 148 (20.6%)
1 spot  │ ████████████████████████████████████████ 318 (44.3%)
2 spots │ ██████████████████ 143 (19.9%)
3 spots │ ████████ 65 (9.1%)
4 spots │ ███ 26 (3.6%)
5 spots │ ██ 17 (2.4%)
6 spots │ 1 (0.1%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 8 users)
```

This event had no direct sign-up - the lottery was the only way in.

### 2021

Tabletop RPGs at this event used direct sign-up, not lottery.

### 2022

**Lottery wins (672 participants, 473 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ █████████████████████████ 199 (29.6%)
1 spot  │ ██████████████████████████████████████ 305 (45.4%)
2 spots │ █████████████ 104 (15.5%)
3 spots │ ██████ 44 (6.5%)
4 spots │ ██ 16 (2.4%)
5 spots │ 2 (0.3%)
6 spots │ 1 (0.1%)
7 spots │ 1 (0.1%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 8 users)
```

**Total games played (kept lottery spots + direct sign-ups):**

```
0 games │ ██████████████████████ 175 (26.0%)
1 game  │ ████████████████████████████████████ 288 (42.9%)
2 games │ ███████████████ 122 (18.2%)
3 games │ ██████ 51 (7.6%)
4 games │ ███ 26 (3.9%)
5 games │ █ 7 (1.0%)
6 games │ 3 (0.4%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 8 users)
```

Of the 199 participants without a lottery win, 39 (19.6%) still played at least one RPG via direct sign-up. 15 winners (3.2%) ended up with none of their won spots, whether given up or cancelled.

### 2023

**Lottery wins (874 participants, 598 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ███████████████████████ 276 (31.6%)
1 spot  │ █████████████████████████████████████ 445 (50.9%)
2 spots │ ████████ 100 (11.4%)
3 spots │ ███ 40 (4.6%)
4 spots │ █ 11 (1.3%)
5 spots │ 2 (0.2%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 12 users)
```

**Total games played (kept lottery spots + direct sign-ups):**

```
0 games │ █████████████████████ 253 (28.9%)
1 game  │ ████████████████████████████████████ 429 (49.1%)
2 games │ ██████████ 122 (14.0%)
3 games │ ███ 38 (4.3%)
4 games │ ██ 25 (2.9%)
5 games │ 5 (0.6%)
6 games │ 2 (0.2%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 12 users)
```

Of the 276 participants without a lottery win, 57 (20.7%) still played at least one RPG via direct sign-up. 34 winners (5.7%) ended up with none of their won spots, whether given up or cancelled.

### 2024

**Lottery wins (1129 participants, 744 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ██████████████████████████████ 385 (34.1%)
1 spot  │ █████████████████████████████████████ 484 (42.9%)
2 spots │ █████████████ 174 (15.4%)
3 spots │ ████ 52 (4.6%)
4 spots │ ██ 29 (2.6%)
5 spots │ 2 (0.2%)
6 spots │ 1 (0.1%)
7 spots │ 2 (0.2%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 13 users)
```

**Total games played (kept lottery spots + direct sign-ups):**

```
0 games │ █████████████████████████████ 380 (33.7%)
1 game  │ ███████████████████████████████████ 458 (40.6%)
2 games │ ██████████████ 180 (15.9%)
3 games │ █████ 64 (5.7%)
4 games │ ██ 31 (2.7%)
5 games │ █ 12 (1.1%)
6 games │ 2 (0.2%)
7 games │ 1 (0.1%)
8 games │ 1 (0.1%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 13 users)
```

Of the 385 participants without a lottery win, 61 (15.8%) still played at least one RPG via direct sign-up. 56 winners (7.5%) ended up with none of their won spots, whether given up or cancelled.

### 2025

**Lottery wins (1260 participants, 924 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ████████████████████ 336 (26.7%)
1 spot  │ ██████████████████████████████████████ 651 (51.7%)
2 spots │ ████████████ 207 (16.4%)
3 spots │ ███ 58 (4.6%)
4 spots │ 5 (0.4%)
5 spots │ 3 (0.2%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 17 users)
```

**Total games played (kept lottery spots + direct sign-ups):**

```
0 games │ ██████████████████ 306 (24.3%)
1 game  │ █████████████████████████████████████ 634 (50.3%)
2 games │ █████████████ 222 (17.6%)
3 games │ ████ 70 (5.6%)
4 games │ █ 19 (1.5%)
5 games │ 7 (0.6%)
6 games │ 1 (0.1%)
7 games │ 1 (0.1%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 17 users)
```

Of the 336 participants without a lottery win, 87 (25.9%) still played at least one RPG via direct sign-up. 57 winners (6.2%) ended up with none of their won spots, whether given up or cancelled.

### 2026

**Lottery wins (1437 participants, 1111 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ████████████████ 326 (22.7%)
1 spot  │ ███████████████████████████████████████ 787 (54.8%)
2 spots │ ████████████ 231 (16.1%)
3 spots │ ████ 72 (5.0%)
4 spots │ █ 17 (1.2%)
5 spots │ 4 (0.3%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 20 users)
```

**Total games played (kept lottery spots + direct sign-ups):**

```
0 games │ ████████████████ 320 (22.3%)
1 game  │ █████████████████████████████████████ 735 (51.1%)
2 games │ ████████████ 234 (16.3%)
3 games │ █████ 101 (7.0%)
4 games │ ██ 35 (2.4%)
5 games │ 8 (0.6%)
6 games │ 2 (0.1%)
7 games │ 1 (0.1%)
8 games │ 1 (0.1%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 20 users)
```

Of the 326 participants without a lottery win, 83 (25.5%) still played at least one RPG via direct sign-up. 77 winners (6.9%) ended up with none of their won spots, whether given up or cancelled.

## Tracon Hitpoint

### 2019

**Lottery wins (121 participants, 101 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ██████████ 20 (16.5%)
1 spot  │ ██████████████████████████████ 59 (48.8%)
2 spots │ █████████████████ 34 (28.1%)
3 spots │ ████ 8 (6.6%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 2 users)
```

This event had no direct sign-up - the lottery was the only way in.

### 2023

**Lottery wins (94 participants, 89 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ███ 5 (5.3%)
1 spot  │ █████████████████████████████████ 65 (69.1%)
2 spots │ ██████████ 20 (21.3%)
3 spots │ ██ 4 (4.3%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 2 users)
```

**Total games played (kept lottery spots + direct sign-ups):**

```
0 games │ █ 2 (2.1%)
1 game  │ █████████████████████████ 49 (52.1%)
2 games │ ██████████████ 27 (28.7%)
3 games │ ████████ 15 (16.0%)
4 games │ 0 (0.0%)
5 games │ █ 1 (1.1%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 2 users)
```

Of the 5 participants without a lottery win, 4 (80.0%) still played at least one RPG via direct sign-up. 1 winner (1.1%) ended up with none of their won spots, whether given up or cancelled.

### 2024

**Lottery wins (93 participants, 88 won at least one spot):**

```
0 spots │ ███ 5 (5.4%)
1 spot  │ ██████████████████████████████ 59 (63.4%)
2 spots │ ████████████ 23 (24.7%)
3 spots │ ███ 6 (6.5%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 2 users)
```

**Total games played (kept lottery spots + direct sign-ups):**

```
0 games │ ███ 6 (6.5%)
1 game  │ ████████████████████████ 47 (50.5%)
2 games │ █████████████ 25 (26.9%)
3 games │ ██████ 12 (12.9%)
4 games │ ██ 3 (3.2%)

(scale: 1 block ≈ 2 users)
```

Of the 5 participants without a lottery win, 1 (20.0%) still played at least one RPG via direct sign-up. 2 winners (2.3%) ended up with none of their won spots, whether given up or cancelled.

## Tracon

Tabletop RPGs at this event used direct sign-up, not lottery.

## Solmukohta

No tabletop RPGs at this event.

## Notes

- Programs cancelled after their lottery ran are included: their sign-ups and wins count even though the program never happened.
- Wins on program items deleted from the data cannot be identified as RPGs and are not counted: 9 result rows in Tracon Hitpoint 2023, 6 in Tracon Hitpoint 2024, and 5 in Ropecon 2026.
